Mariners at Rangers
SEA4–
TEX5Last play · Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Nicky Lopez to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SEA 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 3 TEX
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Colt Emerson scores. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 5) — -25% Mariners
9Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Nicky Lopez to first baseman Jake Burger.4–5
6Nicky Lopez hits a sacrifice bunt. Evan Carter scores. Jake Burger to 2nd. Nicky Lopez to 1st.3–5
6Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Brandon Nimmo scores. Evan Carter to 3rd.3–4
5Dominic Canzone doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Colt Emerson scores. Randy Arozarena scores.3–3
4Jake Burger homers (18) on a line drive to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores.1–3
2Weston Wilson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Josh Naylor scores. Cole Young to 3rd.1–1
1Wyatt Langford homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.