Mariners at Rangers
Last play · Alejandro Osuna strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
SEA 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Colt Emerson scores. Cole Young scores. (inning 7) — -55% Mariners
9Dominic Canzone doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Julio Rodríguez scores.6–4
8Ezequiel Duran homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.5–4
7Randy Arozarena homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
7Dominic Canzone homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Colt Emerson scores. Cole Young scores.4–3
4Nicky Lopez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Jake Burger scores. Evan Carter to 2nd.1–3
4Evan Carter singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger to 3rd.1–2
3Julio Rodríguez singles on a fly ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Cole Young scores.1–1
1Ezequiel Duran out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Joc Pederson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
