Mariners at Rangers
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out to first baseman Joc Pederson.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SEA 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ezequiel Duran scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. (inning 1) — +9% Rangers
7Alejandro Osuna doubles (5) on a fly ball to center fielder Luke Raley. Evan Carter scores. Nicky Lopez scores.1–7
5J.P. Crawford doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Luke Raley scores.1–5
2Ezequiel Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Luke Raley. Wyatt Langford scores.0–5
2Wyatt Langford doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Joc Pederson scores.0–4
1Nicky Lopez grounds out, shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Josh Naylor. Brandon Nimmo scores. Evan Carter to 3rd.0–3
1Evan Carter doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ezequiel Duran scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd.0–2
1Ezequiel Duran triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Wyatt Langford scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
