Mariners at Rangers
Last play · Colt Emerson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SEA 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 7 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Nicky Lopez scores. Elias Díaz scores. (inning 2) — +26% Rangers
9J.P. Crawford out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Josh Naylor scores.3–7
3Jake Burger homers (19) on a line drive to left center field. Evan Carter scores.2–7
3Ezequiel Duran homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
3Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Colt Emerson scores.2–4
2Joc Pederson homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Nicky Lopez scores. Elias Díaz scores.1–4
2Randy Arozarena homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Joc Pederson homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
