Orioles at Rangers
Last play · Christian Encarnacion-Strand lines out to right fielder Brandon Nimmo.
Win probability
Rangers100%
BAL 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 2 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 2) — +15% Rangers
8Corey Seager homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Alejandro Osuna scores. Wyatt Langford scores.1–5
2Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Evan Carter scores. Throwing error by shortstop Gunnar Henderson.1–2
2Evan Carter reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Ezequiel Duran scores.1–1
1Jackson Holliday homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
