Orioles at Rangers
Last play · Christian Encarnacion-Strand strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
BAL 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 0 TEX
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Elias Díaz scores. (inning 6) — +34% Rangers
6Joc Pederson homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Elias Díaz scores.1–2
2Coby Mayo singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Leody Taveras scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
