Orioles at Rangers
Last play · Evan Carter pops out to catcher Carlos Narváez in foul territory.
Win probability
Rangers0%
BAL 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 3 TEX
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+116 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Wyatt Langford scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 3) — +25% Rangers
9Ezequiel Duran grounds out, third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand to first baseman Coby Mayo. Nicky Lopez scores.10–5
9Nicky Lopez triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Cam Cauley scores.10–4
9Colton Cowser walks. Dylan Beavers scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd. Coby Mayo to 2nd.10–3
6Tyler O'Neill homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Holliday scores.9–3
4Pete Alonso homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.7–3
3Brandon Nimmo homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Wyatt Langford scores. Ezequiel Duran scores.5–3
2Pete Alonso homers (24) on a fly ball to left field. Gunnar Henderson scores.5–0
2Colton Cowser homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
