Nationals at Rangers
Last play · Ezequiel Duran pops out to second baseman Nasim Nuñez.
Win probability
Rangers0%
WSH 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 0 TEX
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Tena homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — -14% Nationals
7Andrés Chaparro homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Abimelec Ortiz scores. José Tena scores.6–0
6Jorbit Vivas grounds out to pitcher Cole Winn. Andrés Chaparro scores. Keibert Ruiz to 3rd.3–0
4Keibert Ruiz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Andrés Chaparro scores.2–0
3José Tena homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
