Nationals at Rangers
Last play · Nasim Nuñez flies out to right fielder Brandon Nimmo.
Win probability
Rangers100%
WSH 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 5 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -116
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Foscue homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — +10% Rangers
3Cody Freeman singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brady House. Brandon Nimmo scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd. Justin Foscue to 2nd.0–5
3Justin Foscue walks. Corey Seager scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd.0–4
3Nationals challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Brandon Nimmo reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Wyatt Langford scores. Corey Seager to 3rd.0–3
2Justin Foscue homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
1Jake Burger grounds into a double play, shortstop Nasim Nuñez to second baseman Jorbit Vivas to first baseman Abimelec Ortiz. Wyatt Langford scores. Corey Seager out at 2nd. Jake Burger out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
