Rays at Rangers
Last play · Justin Foscue pops out to second baseman Richie Palacios.
Win probability
Rangers0%
TB 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 6 – 1 TEX
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elias Díaz hits a grand slam (7) to left center field. Jake Burger scores. Evan Carter scores. Cody Freeman scores. (inning 7) — +33% Rangers
9Elias Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Jake Burger scores. Evan Carter to 3rd.7–6
9Junior Caminero singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Jorge Mateo scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.7–5
7Elias Díaz hits a grand slam (7) to left center field. Jake Burger scores. Evan Carter scores. Cody Freeman scores.6–5
5Cedric Mullins grounds into a double play, first baseman Jake Burger to third baseman Cody Freeman to shortstop Corey Seager to second baseman Ezequiel Duran to first baseman Jake Burger. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Chandler Simpson out at 3rd.6–1
5Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Junior Caminero scores. Victor Mesa Jr. to 2nd. Victor Mesa Jr. advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by center fielder Evan Carter.5–1
5Junior Caminero doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Jonathan Aranda scores.4–1
5Jonathan Aranda hits a ground-rule double (22) on a line drive down the left-field line. Yandy Díaz scores.3–1
4Richie Palacios homers (7) on a line drive to right field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
