Athletics at Rangers
Last play · Cody Freeman flies out to right fielder Henry Bolte.
Win probability
Rangers0%
ATH 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 8 – 2 TEX
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Bolte homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Denzel Clarke scores. (inning 3) — -23% Athletics
7Alika Williams doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jeff McNeil scores.9–2
5Alika Williams homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jeff McNeil scores.8–2
5Jonah Heim homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
4Henry Bolte homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Brian Serven scores.5–2
3Zack Gelof homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Henry Bolte homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Denzel Clarke scores.2–2
2Justin Foscue homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Ezequiel Duran homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
