Twins at Blue Jays
Last play · Ernie Clement grounds out, third baseman Ryan Kreidler to first baseman Victor Caratini.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
MIN 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 7 – 2 TOR
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Austin Martin scores. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Jeffers to 2nd. (inning 3) — -26% Twins
9Jesús Sánchez homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.7–4
3Trevor Larnach homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell scores.7–2
3Josh Bell singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Austin Martin scores. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Jeffers to 2nd.4–2
3Ryan Jeffers walks. Byron Buxton scores. Austin Martin to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.2–2
3Brooks Lee homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
1Daulton Varsho homers (2) on a line drive to right center field. George Springer scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
