Twins at Blue Jays
Last play · Austin Martin called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIN 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 6 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Valenzuela homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Andrés Giménez scores. (inning 4) — +29% Blue Jays
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Brandon Valenzuela scores.4–10
7Davis Schneider singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.4–9
6George Springer doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Ernie Clement scores.4–8
6Ernie Clement doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin, deflected by third baseman Tristan Gray. Davis Schneider scores.4–7
5Daulton Varsho homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.4–6
4Brandon Valenzuela homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Andrés Giménez scores.4–5
4Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Davis Schneider scores.4–3
4Davis Schneider doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Jesús Sánchez scores.4–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
