Twins at Blue Jays
MIN8–
TOR2Last play · Kazuma Okamoto grounds into a double play, shortstop Brooks Lee to second baseman Luke Keaschall to first baseman Kody Clemens. Jesús Sánchez out at 2nd. Kazuma Okamoto out at 1st.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
MIN 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 8 – 1 TOR
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tristan Gray homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores. Matt Wallner scores. (inning 2) — -34% Twins
7Jesús Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Ernie Clement scores.8–2
3Brooks Lee doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Josh Bell scores. Matt Wallner scores. Tristan Gray to 3rd.8–1
3Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Luke Keaschall scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.6–1
3Matt Wallner singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Trevor Larnach scores. Luke Keaschall to 3rd. Josh Bell to 2nd.5–1
3Kody Clemens homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
2Tristan Gray homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores. Matt Wallner scores.3–1
1Daulton Varsho singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Matt Wallner, deflected by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Ernie Clement scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.