Guardians at Blue Jays
Last play · Davis Schneider pops out to second baseman Daniel Schneemann.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
CLE 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 7 – 4 TOR
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder George Valera. Lenyn Sosa scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores. (inning 6) — +18% Blue Jays
6Andrés Giménez doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder George Valera. Lenyn Sosa scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.8–6
6Chase DeLauter reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Brayan Rocchio scores. Daniel Schneemann to 3rd.8–4
5Ernie Clement doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder George Valera. Davis Schneider scores.7–4
3Angel Martínez homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Rhys Hoskins scores.7–3
2Kazuma Okamoto homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.5–3
1Jesús Sánchez homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out, shortstop Brayan Rocchio to first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Davis Schneider scores.5–1
1Angel Martínez homers (4) on a line drive to right center field. George Valera scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
