Guardians at Blue Jays
CLE3–
TOR5Last play · Brayan Rocchio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
CLE 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — +20% Blue Jays
9Kyle Manzardo doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Davis Schneider, deflected by center fielder Daulton Varsho. Rhys Hoskins scores. George Valera to 3rd.3–5
7Kazuma Okamoto walks. Myles Straw scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.2–5
7David Fry homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–4
6Andrés Giménez doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder George Valera. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Daulton Varsho scores.1–4
6Daulton Varsho reaches on a fielder's choice. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd. Fielding error by second baseman Juan Brito.1–2
4Kazuma Okamoto homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
3Brayan Rocchio grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Juan Brito scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.