Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Ernie Clement pops out to first baseman Willson Contreras in foul territory.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BOS 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 0 TOR
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcelo Mayer singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd. (inning 4) — -14% Red Sox
8Carlos Narváez homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.5–0
6Caleb Durbin singles on a fly ball to left fielder Davis Schneider. Marcelo Mayer scores.4–0
5Wilyer Abreu doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Willson Contreras scores. Roman Anthony to 3rd.3–0
5Roman Anthony singles on a soft ground ball to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Jarren Duran scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd.2–0
4Marcelo Mayer singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
