Guardians at Blue Jays
Last play · Angel Martínez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
CLE 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 2 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jesús Sánchez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. (inning 6) — +31% Blue Jays
6Jesús Sánchez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.2–4
5Angel Martínez doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Austin Hedges scores.2–2
5Brayan Rocchio singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Juan Brito scores. Austin Hedges to 2nd.1–2
1Jesús Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Angel Martínez. Daulton Varsho scores.0–2
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Ernie Clement scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
