Red Sox @ Blue Jays — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

BOS0–

TOR3

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0
TOR	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	·	3	6	0

Last play · Trevor Story strikes out swinging.

Win probability

Blue Jays100%

BOS 0%TOR 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

BOS 0 – 3 TOR

Blue Jays led after 5

Total runs

7.5

opened 8 ↓

fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-105 / -115

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓

Biggest swing · Blue Jays challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Andrés Giménez scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Roman Anthony to second baseman Marcelo Mayer. (inning 3) — +23% Blue Jays

5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Myles Straw scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.0–3

3Blue Jays challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Andrés Giménez scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Roman Anthony to second baseman Marcelo Mayer.0–2

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Red Sox at Blue Jays