Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Roman Anthony called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BOS 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 7 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd. (inning 3) — +25% Blue Jays
8Brandon Valenzuela homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–8
5Myles Straw out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Daulton Varsho scores.1–7
5George Springer singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd.1–6
4Ernie Clement homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Brandon Valenzuela scores.1–5
3Yohendrick Piñango singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto out at home on the throw, left fielder Roman Anthony to catcher Connor Wong. Daulton Varsho to 2nd.1–3
3Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.1–2
1Willson Contreras homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
