Rays at Blue Jays
TB8–
TOR5Last play · Andrés Giménez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TB 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 7 – 3 TOR
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. (inning 2) — +26% Blue Jays
7Andrés Giménez homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Myles Straw scores.8–5
7Richie Palacios singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Jonathan Aranda scores.8–3
5Jonathan Aranda homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
4Junior Caminero grounds out, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.6–3
2Andrés Giménez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Jesús Sánchez scores.5–3
2Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Chandler Simpson scores.5–0
2Taylor Walls triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Hunter Feduccia scores.4–0
1Richie Palacios singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Junior Caminero scores. Jake Fraley scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.