Rays at Blue Jays
TB7–
TOR6Last play · Andrés Giménez grounds out, third baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TB 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 0 TOR
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Cedric Mullins scores. (inning 10) — -26% Rays
10Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. George Springer scores.7–6
10Jonathan Aranda out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Taylor Walls scores.7–5
10Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Cedric Mullins scores.6–5
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ryan Vilade, deflected by third baseman Junior Caminero. Yohendrick Piñango scores.5–5
7Yohendrick Piñango doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Brandon Valenzuela scores. George Springer scores.5–4
7George Springer singles on a ground ball to shortstop Taylor Walls, deflected by third baseman Junior Caminero. Jesús Sánchez scores. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd.5–2
7Jesús Sánchez doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Ernie Clement scores.5–1
7Ryan Vilade homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.