Pirates at Blue Jays
Last play · Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
PIT 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 1 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jesús Sánchez doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 3rd. (inning 6) — +19% Blue Jays
8Marcell Ozuna grounds out sharply to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Konnor Griffin scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.2–5
7Tyler Heineman homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
6Andrés Giménez grounds into a double play, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Jesús Sánchez scores. Ernie Clement out at 2nd. Andrés Giménez out at 1st.1–4
6Ernie Clement singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Yohendrick Piñango scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.1–3
6Jesús Sánchez doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 3rd.1–2
6Marcell Ozuna doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–1
1George Springer homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
