Marlins at Blue Jays
Last play · Yohendrick Piñango grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Liam Hicks.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
MIA 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 1 TOR
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yohendrick Piñango singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Lenyn Sosa scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd. (inning 5) — +15% Blue Jays
8Owen Caissie singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Javier Sanoja scores.8–2
8Jakob Marsee grounds out, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to first baseman Lenyn Sosa. Otto Lopez scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd.7–2
8Kyle Stowers doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.6–2
6Ernie Clement homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.5–2
6Javier Sanoja doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Kyle Stowers scores. Jakob Marsee scores.5–1
6Kyle Stowers doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Liam Hicks scores.3–1
5Yohendrick Piñango singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Lenyn Sosa scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.2–1
5Owen Caissie doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Javier Sanoja scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
