Marlins at Blue Jays
Last play · Heriberto Hernández strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yohendrick Piñango homers (2) on a line drive to center field. (inning 6) — +21% Blue Jays
6Jesús Sánchez hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Lenyn Sosa scores. George Springer scores. Daulton Varsho scores.1–8
6George Springer singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández, deflected by shortstop Otto Lopez. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Lenyn Sosa to 3rd.1–4
6Yohendrick Piñango homers (2) on a line drive to center field.1–3
5Heriberto Hernández singles on a ground ball to shortstop Andrés Giménez. Jakob Marsee scores.1–2
3Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández, deflected by third baseman Javier Sanoja. Daulton Varsho scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.0–2
2Ernie Clement homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
