Orioles at Blue Jays
Last play · Kazuma Okamoto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BAL 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 3 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 6) — -31% Orioles
9Leody Taveras reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Adley Rutschman scores. Pete Alonso scores. Colton Cowser to 3rd.13–3
9Adley Rutschman doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.11–3
8Leody Taveras grounds out softly, pitcher Connor Seabold to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Coby Mayo scores. Colton Cowser to 2nd.9–3
8Colton Cowser singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Coby Mayo to 3rd.8–3
8Jeremiah Jackson singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Adley Rutschman scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.7–3
6Coby Mayo homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Jeremiah Jackson scores.6–3
6Jeremiah Jackson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Adley Rutschman scores.4–3
6Adley Rutschman doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
