Marlins at Blue Jays
Last play · Graham Pauley lines out to center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — +19% Blue Jays
6Kazuma Okamoto homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
5Nathan Lukes doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Tyler Heineman scores.1–1
1Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Xavier Edwards scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
