Orioles at Blue Jays
Last play · Blaze Alexander called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 0 TOR
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jackson Holliday, deflected by pitcher Yennier Cano. Andrés Giménez scores. (inning 6) — +19% Blue Jays
8Brandon Valenzuela homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.4–6
6Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jackson Holliday, deflected by pitcher Yennier Cano. Andrés Giménez scores.4–5
6Andrés Giménez doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Kazuma Okamoto scores.4–4
6Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Ernie Clement scores.4–3
6Brandon Valenzuela grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso. Jesús Sánchez scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.4–2
6Yohendrick Piñango homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
5Taylor Ward homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Blaze Alexander scores.4–0
5Blaze Alexander doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jackson Holliday scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
