Phillies at Blue Jays
Last play · Brandon Valenzuela grounds out to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
PHI 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 5 – 2 TOR
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adolis García homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 2) — -24% Phillies
5Ernie Clement homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.5–2
3Yohendrick Piñango grounds out to first baseman Bryce Harper. Myles Straw scores.5–1
3Bryson Stott walks. Brandon Marsh scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.5–0
3J.T. Realmuto singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd.4–0
3Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.3–0
2Adolis García homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryson Stott scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
