Phillies at Blue Jays
Last play · Brandon Valenzuela singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Daulton Varsho scores.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
PHI 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 TOR
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Valenzuela singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Daulton Varsho scores. (inning 9) — +55% Blue Jays
9Brandon Valenzuela singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Daulton Varsho scores.2–3
9Bryson Stott doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Bryce Harper scores.2–1
6Jesús Sánchez homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Brandon Marsh doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Trea Turner scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
