Yankees at Blue Jays
NYY5–
TOR8Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYY 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 7 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Alejandro Kirk scores. (inning 1) — +16% Blue Jays
8Ernie Clement doubles (20) on a fly ball to right fielder Max Schuemann. George Springer scores.5–8
6Blue Jays challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Trent Grisham singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Spencer Jones scores. José Caballero scores. Trent Grisham to 2nd.5–7
5Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.3–7
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. George Springer scores.3–6
5Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Cody Bellinger homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Ben Rice scores.3–5
5Paul Goldschmidt out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. J.C. Escarra scores.1–5
2George Springer homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Andrés Giménez scores.0–5
1Kazuma Okamoto homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Alejandro Kirk scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.