Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Nathan Lukes strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
NYY 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul Goldschmidt homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 9) — -41% Yankees
9Paul Goldschmidt homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Cody Bellinger scores.3–1
4Jasson Domínguez homers (2) on a line drive to right field.1–1
3Kazuma Okamoto homers (15) on a line drive to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
