Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Alejandro Kirk lines out to shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
NYY 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 2 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan McMahon scores. (inning 9) — -41% Yankees
9José Caballero homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jasson Domínguez scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.8–3
9Ben Rice homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan McMahon scores.5–3
6Davis Schneider homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
6Anthony Volpe singles on a line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Max Schuemann scores. Anthony Volpe to 2nd.3–2
4Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cody Bellinger. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd. Nathan Lukes to 2nd.2–2
3Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to third baseman Amed Rosario. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd. Kazuma Okamoto advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by third baseman Amed Rosario.2–1
2Ali Sánchez doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Anthony Volpe scores.2–0
2Anthony Volpe singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Max Schuemann scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
