Rangers at Blue Jays
Last play · Brandon Valenzuela called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TEX 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 6 – 3 TOR
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wyatt Langford homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Nicky Lopez scores. Joc Pederson scores. (inning 3) — -26% Rangers
9Kazuma Okamoto homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Ernie Clement scores.6–5
5Myles Straw doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Alejandro Kirk scores. Nathan Lukes scores.6–3
5Davis Schneider out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Kazuma Okamoto scores.6–1
3Jake Burger homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Corey Seager scores.6–0
3Wyatt Langford homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Nicky Lopez scores. Joc Pederson scores.4–0
1Joc Pederson homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
