Rangers at Blue Jays
Last play · Alejandro Kirk flies out to right fielder Brandon Nimmo.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TEX 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 0 TOR
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. George Springer scores. (inning 8) — +45% Blue Jays
9Corey Seager strikes out swinging.3–2
8Nathan Lukes homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. George Springer scores.2–2
6Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Brandon Nimmo scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd. Nicky Lopez to 2nd.2–0
1Joc Pederson homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
