Rangers at Blue Jays
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out sharply, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TEX 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 6 – 2 TOR
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger scores. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd. (inning 5) — -17% Rangers
6Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Sean Keys scores.7–4
6Alejandro Kirk homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.7–3
6Corey Seager homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.7–2
5Yohendrick Piñango homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Ernie Clement scores.6–2
5Elias Díaz doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Ezequiel Duran scores. Alejandro Osuna scores.6–0
5Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger scores. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd.4–0
5Jake Burger singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.2–0
1Jake Burger singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Corey Seager scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
