Mets at Blue Jays
Last play · Ronny Mauricio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYM 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — -16% Mets
7Francisco Lindor homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
5Myles Straw out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Luis Urías scores.0–2
1George Springer triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. George Springer scores. Fielding error by center fielder A.J. Ewing.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
