Mets at Blue Jays
Last play · Francisco Alvarez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYM 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 5 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sean Keys homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Alejandro Kirk scores. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 3) — +14% Blue Jays
9Francisco Lindor homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.3–9
8Carson Benge homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Brett Baty scores.2–9
7Myles Straw homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Daulton Varsho scores. Alejandro Kirk scores.0–9
7Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.0–6
3Sean Keys homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Alejandro Kirk scores. Ernie Clement scores.0–5
3Ernie Clement doubles (22) on a fly ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Alejandro Kirk to 3rd.0–2
1Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Nathan Lukes scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
