Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Brandon Valenzuela grounds out sharply, second baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TB 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 8 – 0 TOR
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca singles on a fly ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Junior Caminero scores. Cedric Mullins scores. (inning 1) — -21% Rays
9Yandy Díaz homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Taylor Walls scores. Nick Fortes scores.12–2
9Nick Fortes singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Myles Straw. Ben Williamson scores. Taylor Walls to 2nd.9–2
6Kazuma Okamoto grounds into a double play, third baseman Junior Caminero to second baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. George Springer scores. Daulton Varsho out at 2nd. Kazuma Okamoto out at 1st.8–2
6Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.8–1
5Nick Fortes homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Ben Williamson scores.8–0
4Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to left fielder Myles Straw. Cedric Mullins scores.5–0
1Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jonny DeLuca scores.3–0
1Jonny DeLuca singles on a fly ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Junior Caminero scores. Cedric Mullins scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
