Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Junior Caminero strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
TB 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Springer singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Yohendrick Piñango scores. (inning 3) — +11% Blue Jays
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Myles Straw scores.1–3
3George Springer singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Yohendrick Piñango scores.1–2
3Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to right fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Hunter Feduccia scores.1–1
1Alejandro Kirk singles on a ground ball to third baseman Junior Caminero. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
