Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Luis Urías flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
TB 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Junior Caminero scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd. (inning 6) — -14% Rays
7Alejandro Kirk homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
6Ben Williamson walks. Cedric Mullins scores. Victor Mesa Jr. to 3rd. Taylor Walls to 2nd.4–1
6Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Junior Caminero scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.3–1
6Chandler Simpson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Yandy Díaz scores.2–1
2Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Chandler Simpson scores.1–1
1George Springer grounds out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
