Cardinals at Blue Jays
Last play · Ernie Clement grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
STL 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 0 TOR
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Fermín singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Masyn Winn scores. Bryan Torres to 2nd. (inning 9) — -34% Cardinals
9Jordan Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder George Springer. Blaze Jordan scores. Lars Nootbaar scores.5–1
9Lars Nootbaar reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Luis Urías. Bryan Torres scores. Blaze Jordan to 3rd. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.3–1
9José Fermín singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Masyn Winn scores. Bryan Torres to 2nd.2–1
8Luis Urías doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Torres. Andrés Giménez scores.1–1
3Lars Nootbaar doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder George Springer. Nathan Church scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
