Cardinals at Blue Jays
Last play · José Fermín grounds into a force out, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to second baseman Luis Urías. Masyn Winn out at 2nd.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
STL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 0 TOR
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Urías singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. George Springer scores. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd. (inning 8) — +34% Blue Jays
8Luis Urías singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. George Springer scores. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.1–3
6Kazuma Okamoto doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.1–1
5Jordan Walker singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
