Cardinals at Blue Jays
Last play · Alec Burleson flies out to center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
STL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+147 / -179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 6) — -14% Cardinals
7Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. George Springer scores.1–5
7George Springer doubles (14) on a fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Andrés Giménez scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.1–3
6Masyn Winn doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Iván Herrera scores.1–2
4Luis Urías out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Nathan Church. Ernie Clement scores. Myles Straw to 3rd.0–2
3George Springer singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar, deflected by shortstop Masyn Winn. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. George Springer to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
