Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Nick Sogard grounds out to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BOS 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-162 / +151
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Charles McAdoo homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — +22% Blue Jays
7Umpire reviewed (rules check), call on the field was overturned: Ceddanne Rafaela flies into a sacrifice double play, center fielder Brett Bateman to second baseman Josh Smith to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Anthony Seigler scores. Nick Sogard out at 1st.1–2
6Andrés Giménez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. George Springer scores. Andrés Giménez to 2nd.0–2
5Charles McAdoo homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
