Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Nick Sogard grounds out, second baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BOS 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-129 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Brandon Valenzuela to 3rd. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Blue Jays
9Andruw Monasterio out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Brett Bateman. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.4–6
9Jarren Duran doubles (13) on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Bateman. Wilyer Abreu scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.3–6
9Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.2–6
8Myles Straw doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Andrés Giménez scores. Ernie Clement scores.1–6
8George Springer out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Kazuma Okamoto scores.1–4
8Ernie Clement walks. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd. Andrés Giménez to 2nd.1–3
8Kazuma Okamoto singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Brandon Valenzuela to 3rd. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.1–2
5Willson Contreras homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
