Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Adley Rutschman grounds out, third baseman Charles McAdoo to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BOS 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 3 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 4) — -20% Red Sox
8Myles Straw doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Josh Smith scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.3–5
6Ernie Clement grounds into a force out, second baseman Nick Sogard to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. George Springer scores. Alejandro Kirk out at 2nd. Ernie Clement to 1st.3–4
5Brett Bateman singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Myles Straw scores.3–3
5Charles McAdoo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Andrés Giménez scores.3–2
5Ceddanne Rafaela homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
4Wilyer Abreu homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
3Brett Bateman doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Nathan Lukes scores. Charles McAdoo to 3rd.1–1
3Ceddanne Rafaela out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brett Bateman. Andruw Monasterio scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
