Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. flies out sharply to center fielder Brett Bateman.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYY 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 0 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — -22% Yankees
8Alejandro Kirk homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
6Alejandro Kirk doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. George Springer scores.1–2
6George Springer grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Ryan McMahon. Nathan Lukes out at 3rd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Throwing error by third baseman Ryan McMahon. Throwing error by first baseman Luis García Jr.1–1
6Trent Grisham homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
