Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BOS 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 0 TOR
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin hits a grand slam (12) to left field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. (inning 8) — -24% Red Sox
9Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Charles McAdoo. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.7–0
9Masataka Yoshida out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Myles Straw. Nick Sogard scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.6–0
8Caleb Durbin hits a grand slam (12) to left field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. Masataka Yoshida scores.5–0
1Willson Contreras doubles (19) on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
