Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Luis García Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYY 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-187 / +173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Charles McAdoo doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 7) — +22% Blue Jays
8Nathan Lukes grounds out, pitcher Tim Hill to first baseman Luis García Jr. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd. Charles McAdoo to 2nd.1–4
8Charles McAdoo singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Andrés Giménez scores. Brandon Valenzuela to 3rd. Ernie Clement to 2nd.1–3
7Charles McAdoo doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ernie Clement scores.1–2
3Alejandro Kirk singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Brett Bateman scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.1–1
2George Lombard Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Spencer Jones scores. George Lombard Jr. to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
